Thursday 31 October 2019

WarnerMedia Day: HBO Max specs

Launch date:
  • May 2020
Content:
  • focus on 3 areas
    • kids/family
    • millennials/Gen-Z
    • adults (focus on women)
  • new series rolled out one episode at a time
  • total 10k hr at launch o/w 1800 films, incl
    • originals (31 series in 2020, 50 in 2021)
    • library content from Warner Bros, New Line, DC, CNN, TNT, TBS, truTV, Turner Classic Movies, Cartoon Network, Adult Swim, Crunchyroll, Rooster Teeth, Looney Tunes etc
    • 3rd-party licensed content
  • to add live special events
Pricing:
  • 15 $/mo
  • free for 10m existing AT&T HBO subs & HBO Now direct-billed subs
  • plans new bundles with free HBO Max for premium video, mobile, BB subs (total 170m D2C relationships, 5500 retail stores)
  • to add AVOD tier within 1 yr (with added content)
Tools:
  • personalised profiles & homepages
  • curated recommendations
  • co-viewing (shared homepages separate from personal homepages)
  • parental PINs
  • downloads for offline viewing
Targets:
  • 75-90m subs in Americas & Europe YE 2025 o/w 50m in US
  • incremental investment $1.5-2.0b in 2020 (for new content, foregone licensing revenue of own content, operating expense for the technology platform, marketing)

Friday 12 April 2019

Walt Disney investor day: Disney+ announcement

Disney+

  • to launch 191112, first in US, near-global after 2 yr
  • 7 $/mo, 69 $/yr, ad-free (number of screens: unknown)
  • downloads for offline viewing, parental controls, personalisation, supports 4K & HDR
  • portfolio
    • at launch: 7500 past episodes, 25 original series, 10 original movies/specials, 400 library movies, 100 recent movies
    • growing to in yr 5: 10k past episodes, 50 original series, 10 movies/specials, 500 library movies, 120 recent movies
  • to include all 2019 film releases after theatrical & home entertainment windows close; plans original series from Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, Disney Animation, NatGeo
  • targets 60-90m subs YE 2024 (o/w 1/3 in US long term)
  • expenses
    • original content spending $1b in 2020 (amortisation $500m), growing to $2.5b (for 50 originals) in 2024 (amortisation $2b)
    • licensed content expense $1.5b in 2020, $2.5b in 2024
    • operating expenses $1b in 2020, peak losses in 2020-2022
  • profitability by 2024
  • considers discounted bundle with ESPN+ & Hulu

Hulu

  • 25m subs
  • ad-free 12 $/mo or limited ads 6 $/mo; Live TV tier 45 $/mo
  • targets 40-60m subs YE 2024
  • peak operating loss $1.5b in 2019, profitability in 2023/2024
  • plans international expansion
ESPN+

  • 2m subs
  • limited ads 5 $/mo or 50 $/yr
  • targets 8-12m subs YE 2024
  • operating loss $650m in 2019 & 2020, profitable by 2023
  • plans international expansion
Hotstar

  • 300m MAU
  • free+ads or premium
  • in Asia

Wednesday 27 March 2019

Apple Services Event: TV Plus, TV Channels, News Plus, Arcade, Card

Apple TV Plus (Apple TV+)
  • SVOD, ad-free
  • with original content (from Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, Jennifer Anniston, Reese Witherspoon, Steve Carrel, JJ Abrams)
  • with downloads
  • commercial autumn 2019 in more than 100 countries
Apple TV Channels
  • to expand Apple TV app with Apple TV Channels
  • aggregator (current iTunes portfolio of movies & series; access to access DirecTV, Spectrum, Hulu, PlayStation Vue, etc; access to HBO, CBS All Access, Showtime, Starz. Epix, Comedy Central Now etc)
  • a la carte sign-up, personal recommendations (AI-based, curated)
  • with Family Sharing
  • May 2019, more than 100 countries
Apple News Plus
  • launches in US & Canada, 10 $/mo
  • access to 251 mags and ?? newspapers (NatGeo, Sports Illustrated, Fortune, New Yorker, LA Times, WSJ); value of individual titles 8k $/yr
  • with personalised recommendations
  • no tracking of what is read
  • with Family Sharing
  • Apple News app (free) has 85m users
Apple Arcade
  • subscription gaming service, ad-free
  • 100 exclusive titles (from Sega, Konami, Disney)
  • with AR
  • no in-app purchases
  • with offline playing
  • autumn 2019 in more than 150 countries
Apple Card
  • free (no fees), low interest fee
  • no CVV code, no signature, no expiration, authorisation via Face ID or Touch ID
  • cc (with Goldman Sachs & MasterCard), tied to Apple Pay (target 10b transactions in 2019, available in over 40 countries end 2019); part of Apple Wallet app; integration with Apple Maps
  • no purchase tracking
  • with Daily Cash (daily rebates)
  • support via Messages app
  • summer 2019 in US

Tuesday 29 January 2019

TiVo: 69% subscribe to SVOD, taking on average 2.75 services

TiVo Video Trends Report January 2019 (survey of 4,458 in US & Canada)

OTT subscriptions
  • 69.3% subscribe to OTT SVOD o/w
    • 50.4% Netflix
    • 21.8% Amazon Prime
    • 11.9% YouTube TV
    • 9.5% Hulu
    • 7.5% HBO Now
    • 6.9% Hulu Live TV
    • 6.3% DirecTV Now
    • 5.2% CBS All Access
    • 4.4% Sony PS Vue
    • 4.1% Showtime
    • 3.6% Starz
    • 3.2% Sling TV
  • Essential packages
    • 1 Netflix
    • 2 YouTube
    • 3 CableTV
    • 4 Amazon Prime
  • Free service usage
    • YouTube 57.9%
    • Facebook 43.9%
    • Twitch 19.9%
    • Snapchat 18.1%
    • Pluto TV 17.7%
    • Crackl 14.7%
    • Vevo 14.3%
Bundling
  • Number of OTT SVOD subscriptions: average 2.75 subscriptions (2017: 2.18)
  • Most popular content bundles
    • PayTV + Netflix + Amazon Prime (10.6%)
    • PayTV + YouTube + Facebook (7.5%)
    • PayTV + Netflix + YouTube (7.5%)
    • PayTV + YouTube TV + Netflix (6.3%)
    • PayTV + Netflix + Facebook (5.4%)
    • Netflix + YouTube + Facebook (5.4%)
    • PayTV + Netflix + Hulu (4.9%)
    • PayTV + Amazon Prime + YouTube (4.4%)
    • PayTV + Hulu Live TV + Netflix (3.8%)
    • Amazon Prime + YouTube + Facebook (3.7%)
Hardware
  • TV screen usage
    • 72.7% watch TV shows
    • 45.4% live sports
    • 33.1% YouTube
    • 27.3% gaming
    • 17.9% personal videos
    • 15.6% casting
  • Streaming devices
    • smart TV (27.1%)
    • consoles (19.4%)
    • Roku (17.7%)
    • Amazon Fire (15.7%)
    • Apple TV (13.3%)
    • Google Chromecast (12.5%)

Thursday 14 December 2017

Another takeover for Disney, another spin-off for Fox


Offer
  • For 21st Century Fox: $52.4b in stock; 515m new DIS shares = 25% pro forma; 0.2745 DIS for 1 FOX; plus $13.7b debt (equity value 52.4b, enterprise value 66.1b)
  • Targets $2b cost savings from efficiencies
  • Iger remains Chair/CEO through 2021
  • Prior to offer:
    • to spin off Fox Broadcasting Co, Fox TV Stations, Fox News, Fox Business, FS1 & FS2, Big Ten Network in newly listed company New Fox (2017E rev $10b, EBITDA $2.8b), to pay $8.5b dividend for tax liability of spin-off
    • Fox to close the buy out of 61% of Sky prior by 180630
  • To be acquired:
    • TV studios 20th Century Fox TV, FX Productions, FX21.
    • Film studios: 20th Century Fox, Fox Searchlight, Fox 2000
    • cable entertainment networks
    • international TV businesses
      • Fox Networks International (>350 channels in 170 countries)
      • Star India (69 channels in >100 countries)
      • Sky (23m subs in 5 countries)
      • stakes in Roku, Endemol Shine, Hulu (to be controlled), Tata Sky
    • titles/franchises: X-Men, Fantastic Four, Deadpool, The Simpsons, Avatar, NatGeo
Rationale
  • Disney
    • complement & enhance (earlier content deals: Lucasfilm, Pixar, Marvel)
    • stronger D2C offerings (Hulu, planned SVOD services Disney & ESPN), control of Hulu
    • efficiencies
  • Fox: focus
    • first split News (newspapers) off to create 21st Century Fox
    • next split New Fox (TV channels US) off to sell 21st Century Fox to Disney
  • Studio majors remaining:
    • Walt Disney: Disney, Lucasfilm, Marvel Studios, Pixar, Walt Disney Animation, Touchstone, 20th Century Fox, Fox Searchlight, Blue Sky, Regency
    • Time Warner: Warner Bros, New Line, Cartoon Network, Castle Rock
    • Comcast: Universal, Focus Features, Working Title, Gramercy, DreamWorks Animation
    • Sony: Sony Pictures, Columbia Pictures, TriStar
    • Viacom: Paramount Pictures, Nickelodeon

Tuesday 18 April 2017

Ipsos: 82% of paid audio streamers still buy music

From the IPSOS survey for IFPI of 12,600 March/April 2016 in 13 countries: US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan, SK, Brazil, Mexico
  • 82% (Sweden 84%) use YouTube (= video streaming) for music; 93% among 16-24 year-olds
  • 71% use licensed music, o/w 37% audio (Sweden 61%), 18% paid audio (Sweden 40%)
  • 82% of paid audio streamers also buy physical/downloads
  • 35% (49% among 16-24) use piracy, o/w 30% stream ripping (49% among 16-24 yo), 19% downloading (35% among 16-24 yo)
  • 55% (2015: 50%) listen via smartphone (Sweden 64%), 66% via computer (2015: 69%)


Friday 10 March 2017

Blendl in trouble, needs to switch to white-label business model

Blendl is in serious trouble. A change of business model may be the one and only cure.

Blendl is a Dutch-based internet firm. It started a few years ago amassing newspaper & magazine articles and selling access on a pay-per-article basis (35 c/article). This created extra income for the media industry and served as a valuable add-on for consumers.

In December it launched Blendl Premium, at 10 €/month, giving access to 20 articles/day from 120 participating newspapers & magazines.

From add-on to replacement

Now, the NRC newspaper announced that it will quit the service. This could potentially signal the end of Blendl, because its articles presumably served as a strong pull for subscribers. And other publishers may follow.

The reason it provides for quitting Blendl is straight-forward, even though the medium-term impact of Blendl Premium is grossly overstated: 'not good for journalism' is too much credit for a service that is 100% dependent on participating publishers. NRC justly claims that it simply earns too little from participating (€ 0.2m in 2016, or the equivalent of 400 subscriptions on a total base of 240,000).

The real reason is this:
"Met deze premium-versie besloot Blendle namelijk om niet langer een aanvullende dienst aan te bieden waarbij je losse artikelen koopt, maar ook zelf abonnementen te gaan werven. Daarmee wordt Blendle in plaats van een elektronische kiosk ook zelf een uitgever."
By offering Blendl Premium, the provider changes from being an add-on to being a replacement service.

White-label add-on service

Blendl seems to be in serious trouble. It's a great service for consumers, who can actually quit all their subscriptions and fully rely on the service. After all, 20 cleverly chosen (personalised) articles a day must be enough for the vast majority.

So what next? How to turn Blendl back into an add-on service? How to prevent subscribers to quit their subscriptions once they start taking Blendl Premium?

The answers may be simple. Blendl should end its direct-to-consumer service and white-label it to publishers. Newspapers & magazines could sell it as an add-on, for instance NRC Blendl, providing access to all participating publishers' articles for, say, 8 €/month - except NRC articles. NRC Blendl would be a subscriber-only service: you quit your traditional newspaper/magazine, then you also lose your Blendl service

Details need to be worked out, such as pricing, number of articles, access to which publishers. But it looks like a sound way forward for Blendl.